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A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.

That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."

Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has got something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."

Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster should join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."